Demand & Supply
Demand Intelligence
AI demand forecast at SKU × region × channel × month. Compares the planning forecast used for replenishment with the AI forecast, explains the drivers and lets you test scenarios before committing supply.
Forecast slice:Last 12 monthsAll SKUs · All regions · All channels
1What is happening?
Current-month demand 32.7M units; planning forecast bias −0.7%.
2Why?
Top driver next month: Trend (12-mo growth).
3What happens next?
AI forecast 33.8M units in Oct 26 (+3.4% vs Sep 26).
4What should we do?
Use the AI forecast for replenishment; review bias by brand.
Forecast quality
Demand history & 6-month forecast
Units · 24 months actual + 6 months forward · planning forecast is the one used for replenishment
Actual demandUnits soldPlanning forecastSeasonal-naive baselineAI forecastAI confidence interval
Gap between actual demand and units sold = lost sales from stock-outs.History Actual · forward months Predicted
Why the AI forecasts Oct 26 this way
Driver contribution to next-month forecast (% change vs a flat run-rate)
Predicted
Signals the AI forecast uses
Feature importance for this slice (share of explained variance) · synthetic
16 features
Historical salesLast 24 months of sell-out by SKU × region × channel — the base run-rate.
22%
SeasonalityRecurring monthly pattern (school holidays, year-end, rainy season).
12%
PromotionPlanned promo depth and mechanic — the planning forecast only used a flat +10% uplift.
9%
TrendUnderlying 12-month brand growth.
9%
Distribution coverageShare of outlets listing the SKU and active outlets per distributor.
7%
Stock availabilityLost sales when shelves are empty are separated from true demand.
7%
DiscountEffective price cut at shelf, which drives uplift and pull-forward.
5%
PriceNet price vs competitor index; higher price reduces volume (elasticity).
5%
RamadanRamadan shifts ~11 days earlier every year — 2027 starts ~8 Feb.
4%
Marketing campaignMedia weight and campaign flighting by brand.
4%
LebaranPre-Lebaran stocking peak and post-Lebaran dip (~10 Mar 2027).
3%
PaydaySpending peaks in the week around the 25th–1st.
3%
E-commerce activityMarketplace mega-sale days (10.10, 11.11, 12.12) and traffic.
3%
HolidayPublic holidays and long weekends reduce trading days.
2%
Weather proxyRainfall index — rainy season lifts cleaning & hygiene products.
2%
Online search trendSearch interest for the category as an early demand signal.
2%
Scenario simulation
What if we change the plan?
Adjust commercial levers — the AI re-forecasts the next 6 months for the current slice
Promotion intensity0%
Price change0%
Distribution coverage+0%
Marketing spend0%
Lever contribution
promo0.0%
price0.0%
coverage0.0%
marketing0.0%
ramadan0.0%
Units (6 months)Predicted
219.8M
+0 vs AI forecast
Volume changePredicted
0.0%
vs AI forecast
Revenue (6 months)Predicted
IDR 3.87T
IDR 0 vs AI forecast
Revenue changePredicted
0.0%
Price & discount adjusted
AI forecastScenarioScenario interval
Predicted Scenario outcomes are model estimates, not commitments.
Next 13 weeks
Weekly AI forecast (units) · payday weeks (25th–1st) peak ~14%
Regular weekPayday weekBaseline
Forecast bias by month
Forecast ÷ actual − 1 · negative = under-forecast (risk of stock-out)
PlanningAI
Forecast accuracy breakdown
Last 12 months · click a row to drill into the slice
Upcoming demand events
Oct 2026 – Mar 2027 · included as forecast features
Oct 2026
SeasonRainy season starts
Home care & hygiene uplift
PaydayPayday 25 Oct
Marketplace10.10 marketplace sale
CampaignFreshHome Rainy Ready
Planned · all regions
Nov 2026
SeasonRainy season peak
PaydayPayday 25 Nov
Marketplace11.11 marketplace sale
CampaignVitaCare Glow Payday
Planned · marketplace
Dec 2026
MarketplaceHarbolnas 12.12
Largest online sale day
PaydayPayday 25 Dec (early pay)
HolidayChristmas & year-end holidays
CampaignLumi Baby Year-end Bundle
Planned · MT
Jan 2027
SeasonRainy season
PaydayPayday 25 Jan
HolidayNew Year / school term
CampaignLittleJoy Back-to-School
Planned · GT
Feb 2027
HolidayRamadan begins ~8 Feb
Earlier than 2026 (18 Feb)
PaydayPayday 25 Feb
CampaignPureNest Ramadan Clean Home
Planned · all regions
Mar 2027
HolidayLebaran ~10 Mar
Pre-Lebaran peak in early March
PaydayPayday 25 Mar
SeasonPost-Lebaran dip
FreshHome demand +18% in October driven by early rains.
84%