1What is happening?
At Risk share rose from 11.8% to 14.9% in 12 months; Loyal and Growing shares eroded.
2Why?
West Java stock-outs and non-personalised reminder cadence; buyers migrating to marketplace.
3What happens next?
Avg churn in At Risk is 73%; without action most move to Dormant within 90 days Predicted
4What should we do?
Segment-specific playbooks: win-back for At Risk, bundles (not discounts) for Price Sensitive.
Open 5If we act?
IDR 0.36B revenue retained from top 3,000 at-risk consumers Estimated
Segments
Segment share trend
Share of consumer base, last 12 months
NewGrowingLoyalHigh ValuePrice SensitiveAt RiskDormant
RFM view
Consumers by recency (rows) × orders in last 12 months (columns)
Actual
Darker = more consumers. Rows beyond 60 days hold the At Risk and Dormant populations.
Segment composition
Segment × brand affinity
Primary brand of each consumer · click a row to filter
| Lumi Baby | PureNest | VitaCare | FreshHome | LittleJoy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New | 25% | 17% | 22% | 22% | 14% |
| Growing | 19% | 21% | 23% | 24% | 14% |
| Loyal | 24% | 19% | 23% | 21% | 14% |
| High Value | 51% | 7% | 18% | 9% | 15% |
| Price Sensitive | 19% | 21% | 23% | 23% | 14% |
| At Risk | 26% | 17% | 22% | 21% | 15% |
| Dormant | 25% | 18% | 22% | 21% | 14% |
Segment × preferred channel
Where each segment buys today · click a row to filter
| Modern Trade | General Trade | E-commerce | Marketplace | Direct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New | 24% | 22% | 15% | 32% | 8% |
| Growing | 28% | 24% | 17% | 23% | 8% |
| Loyal | 27% | 22% | 13% | 29% | 8% |
| High Value | 17% | 15% | 20% | 41% | 6% |
| Price Sensitive | 20% | 17% | 11% | 46% | 6% |
| At Risk | 25% | 21% | 15% | 32% | 8% |
| Dormant | 24% | 21% | 15% | 32% | 8% |
Segment × region
Consumers and share of each region's base
| Segment | Greater Jakarta | West Java | Central Java & DIY | East Java & Bali | Sumatra | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New | 1,114 · 7.5% | 818 · 7.2% | 652 · 7.4% | 775 · 7.4% | 529 · 7.6% | 3,888 |
| Growing | 3,048 · 20.6% | 2,304 · 20.3% | 1,800 · 20.4% | 2,096 · 20.0% | 1,399 · 20.0% | 10,647 |
| Loyal | 3,623 · 24.4% | 2,794 · 24.6% | 2,085 · 23.6% | 2,585 · 24.7% | 1,741 · 24.9% | 12,828 |
| High Value | 1,300 · 8.8% | 1,036 · 9.1% | 773 · 8.8% | 950 · 9.1% | 649 · 9.3% | 4,708 |
| Price Sensitive | 1,453 · 9.8% | 1,107 · 9.7% | 840 · 9.5% | 1,018 · 9.7% | 664 · 9.5% | 5,082 |
| At Risk | 2,159 · 14.6% | 1,710 · 15.0% | 1,355 · 15.3% | 1,542 · 14.7% | 1,051 · 15.0% | 7,817 |
| Dormant | 2,134 · 14.4% | 1,603 · 14.1% | 1,327 · 15.0% | 1,494 · 14.3% | 952 · 13.6% | 7,510 |
Consumer sample
All segments
Top 500 of 52,480 by CLV · click a consumer to open Consumer 360